"You don’t really suppose, do you," Gandalf tells Bilbo, "that all your adventures and escapes were managed by mere luck, just for your sole benefit?"
Contrary to the claims of Nietzsche, Hitler and other secular "progressives," there is no triumph of the will without the supernatural assistance of grace. This is the whole point of Frodo’s failure to destroy the One Ring of his own volition in The Lord of the Rings. Human will, on its own, is never enough. Grace is always necessary.
In The Hobbit, as in The Lord of the Rings, good "luck" is inextricably connected to good choices, and bad "luck" is inextricably connected to bad choices. With regard to the latter, we should recall the words of Gandalf to Pippin: "Often does hatred hurt itself" — or the words of Theoden that "oft evil will shall evil mar."